September 2026 Market Review: Progress Without Perfect Conditions
By: Derek Damian, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer, Spartan Wealth Management
August offered investors another reminder that markets do not need a perfect backdrop to make progress.
Questions surrounding inflation, interest rates, trade policy, and geopolitical tensions remained firmly in view throughout the month. Long-term Treasury yields climbed toward levels not seen in nearly two decades, inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s target, and oil prices continued to command attention. Yet beneath those headlines, corporate earnings remained strong, economic activity continued, and major U.S. equity indices finished August higher.
For long-term investors, that contrast is important. Markets have rarely waited for uncertainty to disappear before moving forward. More often, they have adjusted as new information arrives, rewarding investors who maintain perspective and remain aligned with their broader financial objectives.
As summer draws to a close, August provides a useful opportunity to consider what supported markets, where risks remain, and what investors may want to watch as we move into September.
Markets Continued to Advance
Major U.S. equity indices posted gains during August. The S&P 500 rose 2.6%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 3.9%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.3%. Through the end of August, the indices were higher by 12.3%, 13.5%, and 10.7%, respectively, for the year.
International markets also participated. Developed international equities, as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index in U.S. dollar terms, returned 1.8% for the month, while emerging markets, as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, gained 3.2%.
Perhaps equally notable was what did not happen. Despite an active news cycle, market volatility remained relatively contained. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, ended August near 16 after climbing as high as 21 during the previous month. That placed volatility below its longer-term average and suggested that investors were absorbing new developments without the degree of disruption that has accompanied other periods of uncertainty.
The bond market told a somewhat different story. Long-term Treasury yields moved higher, with the 10-year Treasury yield ending August around 4.75% and the 30-year yield climbing above 5%. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index nevertheless produced a modestly positive return for the month.
Taken together, August reflected an investment environment that remains constructive, but increasingly nuanced. Equity markets have benefited from healthy corporate profitability, while higher yields and persistent inflation continue to influence valuations and asset allocation decisions.
Higher Interest Rates Are Reshaping the Investment Landscape
One of the most significant developments in August occurred in the Treasury market.
The 30-year Treasury yield moved above 5% during the month, reaching levels not seen in nearly two decades. The 10-year Treasury yield also approached recent highs. These moves matter well beyond the bond market because Treasury yields influence borrowing costs, business investment, mortgage rates, asset valuations, and the relative attractiveness of different investments.
Higher interest rates are often described as a headwind for financial markets, but the relationship is more complicated than that. The reason rates are rising can be just as important as the increase itself.
During much of the past several years, inflation was a primary driver of higher yields. More recently, stronger real yields, which measure returns after accounting for inflation, have also played a role. Resilient economic activity and corporate profitability have helped support those higher real yields, even as investors continue to evaluate the outlook for inflation and monetary policy.
For fixed-income investors, the environment presents both challenges and opportunities. Rising yields can place downward pressure on the market value of existing bonds, particularly those with longer maturities. At the same time, higher yields can provide more meaningful income potential from newly issued bonds than investors had available during much of the previous decade.
This is one reason the role of fixed income should be considered within the context of an investor’s complete financial plan rather than through the lens of short-term bond price movements alone. Income, diversification, liquidity needs, time horizon, and risk tolerance all matter when determining how fixed income fits within a portfolio.
Inflation Keeps the Federal Reserve in Focus
Inflation remains an important part of the interest-rate story.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose 3.7% over the 12 months ending in July. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 3.3%. Both measures remain above the Federal Reserve’s long-term 2% inflation objective.
That persistence has complicated the outlook for monetary policy. Federal Reserve officials have continued to emphasize the importance of restoring price stability, and comments surrounding the annual Jackson Hole symposium in late August contributed to expectations that monetary policy could remain restrictive.
Markets entered September assigning a greater probability to additional policy tightening than they had earlier in the summer. Those expectations can change quickly as new economic information becomes available, particularly employment and inflation data.
Rather than trying to predict the precise path of Federal Reserve policy, investors may be better served by understanding what different interest-rate environments could mean for their portfolios. A period of higher rates can affect stocks and bonds differently, while also influencing cash yields, borrowing costs, and financial planning decisions.
The important question is not simply whether the Federal Reserve raises or holds rates at its next meeting. It is whether a portfolio remains appropriately positioned across a range of reasonable outcomes.
Corporate Earnings Remain an Important Source of Support
While interest rates dominated many of August’s headlines, corporate earnings provided an important counterweight.
Second-quarter earnings results were broadly strong, with growth extending beyond a narrow portion of the market. Ten of the eleven S&P 500 sectors reported year-over-year earnings growth, and nine produced double-digit percentage gains.
That breadth matters.
Over the past several years, investors have periodically questioned whether market performance was becoming too dependent on a relatively small group of companies. Broader earnings growth suggests that profitability is being supported by activity across more areas of the economy.
Investment related to artificial intelligence infrastructure has contributed to corporate spending, but it is not the only factor supporting earnings. Businesses have continued to adapt to changing financing costs, input prices, trade conditions, and consumer behavior. Energy markets have also influenced results across portions of the economy.
Current consensus estimates anticipate continued earnings growth, although forecasts should always be viewed as expectations rather than guarantees. Economic conditions, interest rates, consumer demand, geopolitical developments, and company-specific factors can all cause those estimates to change.
Strong earnings have also helped support equity valuations. The S&P 500’s price-to-earnings ratio remains above its long-term historical average, which deserves attention after a period of strong market performance. Elevated valuations do not necessarily signal an imminent decline, nor do they provide a reliable tool for timing short-term market movements. They do, however, reinforce the value of thoughtful diversification and disciplined asset allocation.
Trade and Geopolitical Risks Have Not Disappeared
Trade policy remained another source of uncertainty during August as the United States continued to navigate changing tariff policies and relationships with major trading partners.
Businesses have had considerable time to respond to a changing global trade environment. Many companies have adjusted supply chains, reconsidered sourcing arrangements, modified pricing, or absorbed portions of higher costs. Those adaptations have helped reduce some of the economic effects investors initially feared.
Still, trade policy remains fluid, and tariffs can affect industries differently. Changes in import costs can influence corporate margins, consumer prices, capital investment, and inflation, making trade developments relevant to both markets and Federal Reserve policy.
Geopolitical developments also returned to the forefront late in the month, contributing to renewed movement in energy markets. Oil prices can have an outsized influence on inflation expectations because energy costs eventually work their way through transportation, manufacturing, and household budgets.
For investors, these issues deserve attention without becoming the sole basis for portfolio decisions. Geopolitical events and policy changes are difficult to predict, and markets frequently begin adjusting before the full economic consequences become clear.
Diversification remains one of the primary tools available for managing that uncertainty.
What We Are Watching in September
September begins with many of the same crosscurrents that shaped August, but several developments may provide greater clarity.
Inflation and labor-market data will remain particularly important as investors assess the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision. Signs that inflation is becoming more persistent could reinforce expectations for higher rates, while evidence of slowing economic activity could complicate the Fed’s decision-making process.
Treasury yields will also bear watching. Higher long-term rates can influence equity valuations and borrowing conditions, but they may simultaneously create more attractive opportunities within portions of the fixed-income market.
Corporate fundamentals remain another important consideration. Markets have benefited from strong earnings growth, and investors will be watching whether that strength can continue as companies contend with higher financing costs, shifting trade conditions, and changing consumer behavior.
Finally, September has historically been a more volatile month for equities, although seasonal patterns should never be treated as forecasts. Investors may encounter periods when economic data, Federal Reserve expectations, or geopolitical developments create larger market swings.
That possibility makes preparation more valuable than prediction.
Perspective Matters More Than Headlines
August demonstrated how seemingly conflicting conditions can exist at the same time. Interest rates can rise while stocks advance. Inflation can remain elevated while businesses continue to grow earnings. Geopolitical risks can intensify without derailing the broader market.
Markets are rarely defined by a single variable.
For investors, the challenge is resisting the temptation to treat each new development as a reason to reconsider a strategy designed around objectives that may extend decades into the future. Short-term volatility is part of investing, and uncertainty does not necessarily mean that long-term plans need to change.
A diversified portfolio cannot eliminate risk or guarantee positive results. It can, however, help investors avoid becoming overly dependent on one company, sector, asset class, or economic outcome.
As we move into the final months of 2026, the investment landscape remains complex. Corporate earnings have provided meaningful support, fixed-income yields are considerably more attractive than they were several years ago, and economic growth has remained resilient. At the same time, inflation, monetary policy, trade developments, and geopolitical risks warrant continued attention.
The goal is not to anticipate every turn in the market. It is to build a financial strategy capable of navigating more than one possible path.
At Spartan Wealth Management, we believe enduring financial plans are built with that perspective in mind: grounded in individual goals, thoughtfully diversified, and designed to remain disciplined as markets evolve.
Sources
U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates and interest-rate statistics.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays, July 2026, August 26, 2026.
Federal Reserve and market-based interest-rate expectations as of August 2026.
FactSet, S&P 500 Earnings Season Update, August 2026.
Clearnomics research and LSEG data as of August 31, 2026.
Disclosures:
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. Investing involves risk including the loss of principal. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and non-U.S. based common stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The market value, the last sale price multiplied by total shares outstanding, is calculated throughout the trading day, and is related to the total value of the Index. The MSCI EAFE Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the US & Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following developed country indices: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK. The MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of the emerging market countries of the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia. The MSCI EM Index consists of the following emerging market country indices: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa.Turkey, United Arab Emirates, China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an index of the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, including both government and corporate bonds.
Advisors associated with Spartan Wealth Management may be either (1) registered representatives with, and securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisor representatives of Spartan Wealth Management; or (2) solely investment advisor representatives of Spartan Wealth Management, and not affiliated with LPL Financial. Investment advice offered through Spartan Wealth Management, a registered investment advisor and separate entity from LPL Financial. Registration does not constitute an endorsement from the commission, nor does it imply a certain level of skill or ability.
September 2026 Market Review: Progress Without Perfect Conditions
September 2026 Market Review: Progress Without Perfect Conditions
By: Derek Damian, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer, Spartan Wealth Management
August offered investors another reminder that markets do not need a perfect backdrop to make progress.
Questions surrounding inflation, interest rates, trade policy, and geopolitical tensions remained firmly in view throughout the month. Long-term Treasury yields climbed toward levels not seen in nearly two decades, inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s target, and oil prices continued to command attention. Yet beneath those headlines, corporate earnings remained strong, economic activity continued, and major U.S. equity indices finished August higher.
For long-term investors, that contrast is important. Markets have rarely waited for uncertainty to disappear before moving forward. More often, they have adjusted as new information arrives, rewarding investors who maintain perspective and remain aligned with their broader financial objectives.
As summer draws to a close, August provides a useful opportunity to consider what supported markets, where risks remain, and what investors may want to watch as we move into September.
Markets Continued to Advance
Major U.S. equity indices posted gains during August. The S&P 500 rose 2.6%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 3.9%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.3%. Through the end of August, the indices were higher by 12.3%, 13.5%, and 10.7%, respectively, for the year.
International markets also participated. Developed international equities, as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index in U.S. dollar terms, returned 1.8% for the month, while emerging markets, as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, gained 3.2%.
Perhaps equally notable was what did not happen. Despite an active news cycle, market volatility remained relatively contained. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, ended August near 16 after climbing as high as 21 during the previous month. That placed volatility below its longer-term average and suggested that investors were absorbing new developments without the degree of disruption that has accompanied other periods of uncertainty.
The bond market told a somewhat different story. Long-term Treasury yields moved higher, with the 10-year Treasury yield ending August around 4.75% and the 30-year yield climbing above 5%. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index nevertheless produced a modestly positive return for the month.
Taken together, August reflected an investment environment that remains constructive, but increasingly nuanced. Equity markets have benefited from healthy corporate profitability, while higher yields and persistent inflation continue to influence valuations and asset allocation decisions.
Higher Interest Rates Are Reshaping the Investment Landscape
One of the most significant developments in August occurred in the Treasury market.
The 30-year Treasury yield moved above 5% during the month, reaching levels not seen in nearly two decades. The 10-year Treasury yield also approached recent highs. These moves matter well beyond the bond market because Treasury yields influence borrowing costs, business investment, mortgage rates, asset valuations, and the relative attractiveness of different investments.
Higher interest rates are often described as a headwind for financial markets, but the relationship is more complicated than that. The reason rates are rising can be just as important as the increase itself.
During much of the past several years, inflation was a primary driver of higher yields. More recently, stronger real yields, which measure returns after accounting for inflation, have also played a role. Resilient economic activity and corporate profitability have helped support those higher real yields, even as investors continue to evaluate the outlook for inflation and monetary policy.
For fixed-income investors, the environment presents both challenges and opportunities. Rising yields can place downward pressure on the market value of existing bonds, particularly those with longer maturities. At the same time, higher yields can provide more meaningful income potential from newly issued bonds than investors had available during much of the previous decade.
This is one reason the role of fixed income should be considered within the context of an investor’s complete financial plan rather than through the lens of short-term bond price movements alone. Income, diversification, liquidity needs, time horizon, and risk tolerance all matter when determining how fixed income fits within a portfolio.
Inflation Keeps the Federal Reserve in Focus
Inflation remains an important part of the interest-rate story.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose 3.7% over the 12 months ending in July. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 3.3%. Both measures remain above the Federal Reserve’s long-term 2% inflation objective.
That persistence has complicated the outlook for monetary policy. Federal Reserve officials have continued to emphasize the importance of restoring price stability, and comments surrounding the annual Jackson Hole symposium in late August contributed to expectations that monetary policy could remain restrictive.
Markets entered September assigning a greater probability to additional policy tightening than they had earlier in the summer. Those expectations can change quickly as new economic information becomes available, particularly employment and inflation data.
Rather than trying to predict the precise path of Federal Reserve policy, investors may be better served by understanding what different interest-rate environments could mean for their portfolios. A period of higher rates can affect stocks and bonds differently, while also influencing cash yields, borrowing costs, and financial planning decisions.
The important question is not simply whether the Federal Reserve raises or holds rates at its next meeting. It is whether a portfolio remains appropriately positioned across a range of reasonable outcomes.
Corporate Earnings Remain an Important Source of Support
While interest rates dominated many of August’s headlines, corporate earnings provided an important counterweight.
Second-quarter earnings results were broadly strong, with growth extending beyond a narrow portion of the market. Ten of the eleven S&P 500 sectors reported year-over-year earnings growth, and nine produced double-digit percentage gains.
That breadth matters.
Over the past several years, investors have periodically questioned whether market performance was becoming too dependent on a relatively small group of companies. Broader earnings growth suggests that profitability is being supported by activity across more areas of the economy.
Investment related to artificial intelligence infrastructure has contributed to corporate spending, but it is not the only factor supporting earnings. Businesses have continued to adapt to changing financing costs, input prices, trade conditions, and consumer behavior. Energy markets have also influenced results across portions of the economy.
Current consensus estimates anticipate continued earnings growth, although forecasts should always be viewed as expectations rather than guarantees. Economic conditions, interest rates, consumer demand, geopolitical developments, and company-specific factors can all cause those estimates to change.
Strong earnings have also helped support equity valuations. The S&P 500’s price-to-earnings ratio remains above its long-term historical average, which deserves attention after a period of strong market performance. Elevated valuations do not necessarily signal an imminent decline, nor do they provide a reliable tool for timing short-term market movements. They do, however, reinforce the value of thoughtful diversification and disciplined asset allocation.
Trade and Geopolitical Risks Have Not Disappeared
Trade policy remained another source of uncertainty during August as the United States continued to navigate changing tariff policies and relationships with major trading partners.
Businesses have had considerable time to respond to a changing global trade environment. Many companies have adjusted supply chains, reconsidered sourcing arrangements, modified pricing, or absorbed portions of higher costs. Those adaptations have helped reduce some of the economic effects investors initially feared.
Still, trade policy remains fluid, and tariffs can affect industries differently. Changes in import costs can influence corporate margins, consumer prices, capital investment, and inflation, making trade developments relevant to both markets and Federal Reserve policy.
Geopolitical developments also returned to the forefront late in the month, contributing to renewed movement in energy markets. Oil prices can have an outsized influence on inflation expectations because energy costs eventually work their way through transportation, manufacturing, and household budgets.
For investors, these issues deserve attention without becoming the sole basis for portfolio decisions. Geopolitical events and policy changes are difficult to predict, and markets frequently begin adjusting before the full economic consequences become clear.
Diversification remains one of the primary tools available for managing that uncertainty.
What We Are Watching in September
September begins with many of the same crosscurrents that shaped August, but several developments may provide greater clarity.
Inflation and labor-market data will remain particularly important as investors assess the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision. Signs that inflation is becoming more persistent could reinforce expectations for higher rates, while evidence of slowing economic activity could complicate the Fed’s decision-making process.
Treasury yields will also bear watching. Higher long-term rates can influence equity valuations and borrowing conditions, but they may simultaneously create more attractive opportunities within portions of the fixed-income market.
Corporate fundamentals remain another important consideration. Markets have benefited from strong earnings growth, and investors will be watching whether that strength can continue as companies contend with higher financing costs, shifting trade conditions, and changing consumer behavior.
Finally, September has historically been a more volatile month for equities, although seasonal patterns should never be treated as forecasts. Investors may encounter periods when economic data, Federal Reserve expectations, or geopolitical developments create larger market swings.
That possibility makes preparation more valuable than prediction.
Perspective Matters More Than Headlines
August demonstrated how seemingly conflicting conditions can exist at the same time. Interest rates can rise while stocks advance. Inflation can remain elevated while businesses continue to grow earnings. Geopolitical risks can intensify without derailing the broader market.
Markets are rarely defined by a single variable.
For investors, the challenge is resisting the temptation to treat each new development as a reason to reconsider a strategy designed around objectives that may extend decades into the future. Short-term volatility is part of investing, and uncertainty does not necessarily mean that long-term plans need to change.
A diversified portfolio cannot eliminate risk or guarantee positive results. It can, however, help investors avoid becoming overly dependent on one company, sector, asset class, or economic outcome.
As we move into the final months of 2026, the investment landscape remains complex. Corporate earnings have provided meaningful support, fixed-income yields are considerably more attractive than they were several years ago, and economic growth has remained resilient. At the same time, inflation, monetary policy, trade developments, and geopolitical risks warrant continued attention.
The goal is not to anticipate every turn in the market. It is to build a financial strategy capable of navigating more than one possible path.
At Spartan Wealth Management, we believe enduring financial plans are built with that perspective in mind: grounded in individual goals, thoughtfully diversified, and designed to remain disciplined as markets evolve.
Sources
U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates and interest-rate statistics.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays, July 2026, August 26, 2026.
Federal Reserve and market-based interest-rate expectations as of August 2026.
FactSet, S&P 500 Earnings Season Update, August 2026.
Clearnomics research and LSEG data as of August 31, 2026.
Disclosures:
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. Investing involves risk including the loss of principal. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and non-U.S. based common stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The market value, the last sale price multiplied by total shares outstanding, is calculated throughout the trading day, and is related to the total value of the Index. The MSCI EAFE Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the US & Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following developed country indices: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK. The MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of the emerging market countries of the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia. The MSCI EM Index consists of the following emerging market country indices: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa.Turkey, United Arab Emirates, China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an index of the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, including both government and corporate bonds.
Advisors associated with Spartan Wealth Management may be either (1) registered representatives with, and securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC, and investment advisor representatives of Spartan Wealth Management; or (2) solely investment advisor representatives of Spartan Wealth Management, and not affiliated with LPL Financial. Investment advice offered through Spartan Wealth Management, a registered investment advisor and separate entity from LPL Financial. Registration does not constitute an endorsement from the commission, nor does it imply a certain level of skill or ability.
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